john mccain,speech,hubris McCain: "We've Got Them Just Where We Want Them"

McCain: "We've Got Them Just Where We Want Them"

posted by NetRunner

1 year 1 month 1 week ago • 382 views

tags: john mccain, speech, hubris

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John McCain campaign rally, October 13, 2008

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From TPM:

Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Barack Obama still holds a solid lead over John McCain, with the overall margin is unchanged from yesterday:

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-41% Obama lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 53%-40% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.1%-42.5%, a lead of 7.6 points, compared to a 50.4%-42.8% Obama lead yesterday. The undecideds have increased by a total of 0.6%, but it's come equally out of both candidates' scores.

Fivethirtyeight.com gives McCain a 6.2% chance of winning.

Pollster.com shows Obama as having 320 EV's with just lean/solid Democratic states, 270 EV needed to win.

Even the conservative-run realclearpolitics.com shows Obama with 277 EV's, not counting toss-up states -- and their map matches my gut feeling about what states are in play at this point.

Obama people can't afford to be complacent, but McCain has a huge hill to climb if he expects this to even be close.

Right where he wants us, indeed.

written by NetRunner

| 1 year 1 month 1 week ago | CH

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Oh, that's rich.

written by shuac

| 1 year 1 month 1 week ago | CH

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He's got them where we want them too: In the winner's circle.

written by kronosposeidon

| 1 year 1 month 1 week ago | CH

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Actually, just like a war, or many other elections in American history, it's never too late for Obama to lose. That's what I'm afraid of.

written by kronosposeidon

| 1 year 1 month 1 week ago | CH

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Nope, it's not too late for him to lose, but I'm having trouble imagining what McCain could try that he hasn't already.

I think the only thing that could shake it up at this point is a major external event, but given that much of Obama's lead seems to be driven by the fact that he seems to have won over the public to trusting his judgment, I don't see the usual terrorism/national security/bin Laden stuff moving things back in McCain's direction.

It'd need to be a personal scandal, and given the millions of dollars and probably millions of man-hours spent by the GOP to find one, they don't seem to have come up with anything substantive at all.

written by NetRunner

| 1 year 1 month 1 week ago | CH

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