Carl Sagan Explains the Drake Equation
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Stumble ThisFrom Cosmos, episode 12 "The Encyclopaedia Galactica"
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Carlsaganexplains
+anything = NI'm not sure, but "cool" would be one of the variables and 1970 would be one of the constants.
It is reasonably likely that if we manage to maintain technological advancement for 20 more years that we will not be using any high-gain RF at all, and then we become just as invisible as if we had destroyed ourselves by Drakes equation.
1970's + mind-altering substances + Carl Sagan - common sense = this vid
Next is the number of worlds suitable for life. Again, pulled number out of his ass. Actually, most of these numbers are pulled out of his ass. What they don't seem to go into is what if it's all zero? One zero in the equation will screw everything else up. I mean, there IS a chance that we are the only ones in the galaxy (I doubt it), but it kind of shows how silly the Drake Equation is. It's all speculation. The equation means nothing. Easier to just say "yes, there are probably other intelligent civilizations out there in the galaxy". We don't know how many since we haven't had any evidence of a single one other than our own.
This equation doesn't help or enlighten us but I guess it does kind of wow the uninitiated.
Haven't actually watched the video as my connection's being screwy. But, I'm gonna upvote anyway based on the fact it's Sagan.
The reasoning for SETI really seemed to be, "If we find something, it could be the most extraordinary achievement of mankind since we came down from trees. If we don't, well, you've gotta be in it to win it."
And yes - I guess I'm talking about the singularity. Something like that is definitely coming down the pipe.
The point about radio-wave power decreasing as technology advances ignores the idea that advanced civilizations may deliberately create powerful radio beacons to signal with - as described in Sagan's Contact.
It's been years since I've read Childhood's End - but I'm sure it fed into my belief system. I also like Vernor Vinge's take on the Singularity. Didn't he invent the term?
If you like this stuff, and good far-future, thinking peron's space opera- Check out Vinge's A Fire Upon the Deep.
At any rate though, any of the factors discussed in Guns Germs and Steel are accounted for in Fc, the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.