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27 Comments
sirexsays...****, was just about to post this. beat me to it by 5 friggin' minutes. -- anyhow, upvote !
budzossays...I went out on pocket aces the last time I played. It was really annoying because I was two players away from a sizeable pot.
HaricotVertsays...Don't you just hate it when that happens?
Nebosukesays...Anybody want to figure out the statistics (for 5 different pairs)?
arvanasays...I get close to 1 in 1.5 million.
eric3579says...You have to check out this hand of poker.
http://www.videosift.com/video/How-to-Lose-Over-300000-in-5-Minutes-Negreanu-VS-Hansen
ambassdorsays...fold pocket kings? ####!
arvanasays...eric3579 asked me how I got those odds, so here it is -- skip if you don't like math!
There are 5 hands. The first card dealt can be anything, but the second through fifth cards all have to be different from the previous cards dealt.
Card 2 would have odds of 48:51 since there are 51 cards left in the deck and three of them can't be dealt to Player 2, as they would have the same face value as Player 1's card.
Cards 3, 4 and 5 would similarly have odds of 44:50, 40:49 and 36:48 respectively.
When Player 1 gets dealt a second card, there are 47 cards left in the deck, and 3 that would match his first card, so his odds of getting a pair are 3:47.
Likewise, Players 2–5 have odds of 3:46, 3:45, 3:44 and 3:43.
Now, multiply all of those odds together to get the odds of 5 different pocket pairs:
<u>48</u> . <u>44</u> . <u>40</u> . <u>36</u> . <u> 3</u> . <u> 3</u> . <u> 3</u> . <u> 3</u> . <u> 3</u> <sub>=</sub> <u> 1 </u>
51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 1493840
JustT1msays...arent you forgetting the sixth hand that wasnt a pair in that math?
arvanasays...Oops, you're right, JustT1m, I didn't notice there were actually six players. That changes things a little! Though the odds would still be in the same ballpark.
jwraysays...The number of ways for all 5 players to get different pocket pairs is (13 P 5)*((4 C 2)^5). The number of possible hands is (52 C 2)*(50 C 2)*(48 C 2)*(46 C 2)*(44 C 2). Divide the first one by the second one. The probability is 6.69*10^-7, which matches Arvana's answer.
jwraysays...The 6th hand that we didn't see doesn't change the probabilities. Those cards might as well still be in the deck.
arvanasays...Thanks, jwray, it's good to be corrected by a real mathematician!
jmdsays...hmmm... still not sure what happened on the last card there. which hands won and which hands lost?
HaricotVertsays...The trip Queens won over the pocket pair of Aces.
In other words, the guy with the Aces got shafted.
He played good poker but had bad luck.
joedirtsays...yeah "he played good poker".. this drives me nuts. Wow the guy called with pocket Aces. That is so far from "good poker". It's like holding with A-10 in blackjack.
Anyways, your worst matchup in poker like 2-7 and A-A still means you lose 20% of the time. I fold Aces a lot more than I fold J-10 suited.
Paybacksays...Someone needs to tell the dealer they need to shuffle the cards after playing Solitare...
Kruposays...LOL @ solitaire comment. Awesome.
Anyone know the ultimate outcome from this game?
sirexsays...lol at solitare
rustybrookssays...I fold Aces a lot more than I fold J-10 suited.
You fold aces when now? I really hope you don't mean preflop.
T-mansays...I've folded aces preflop a few times but only in satellites where the top X moves on, it was close to the "money" and I was safe to move forward, and a big stack had made a significant raise before me. In that situation there is no reason to risk my stack on someone not sucking out. Aces aren't a sure thing.
T-mansays...But what are the odds of three of those pocket pairs being AA, KK, and QQ?
rustybrookssays...OK, sure, I understand that. So, would you call with JTs there? Course not.
T-mansays...No way. You are right. In aggregate, I fold J-10 suited much more than I do aces - preflop and postflop.
messengersays...Arvana, your odds are accurate for a table with 5 players. But there were 6 players, and thus, 6 different ways to make 5 pairs -- only 5 of the 6 cards had to hit the second time around. I think you divide your number by 6 to get the right odds, but I wouldn't hang my name on that.
EDDsays...*wtf
siftbotsays...Adding video to channels (Wtf) - requested by EDD.
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