I'm reasonably sure most people have been following the race close enough to know that Obama is in the lead in the national tracking polls right now, just outside the margin of error. A good thing to be sure, but the race is decided by electoral votes.
Right now, the electoral math looks exceptionally good for Obama.
Right now, Obama has essentially locked down all of the Kerry states, plus Iowa, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. That leaves Obama at 264 electoral votes, just 6 shy of what he needs to win.
The remaining toss-up states are: Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana.
A victory by Obama in any of those states (except Nevada) will make Obama President, and he's got a slight lead in the Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada in the composites right now.
Winning Nevada technically leaves us with 269 vs 269, meaning the Democratic House picks the winner: Obama wins.
There's a bit of a conversation to go into about Maine and Nebraska: they split their electoral votes by district. The McCain campaign is making a play for 1 EV from Maine, while the Obama campaign is making a play for 1 EV from Nebraska. This will only really matter if the 269 tie comes up, though.
The bottom line is that McCain has a very hard hill to climb right now. Unless he can shake loose a Kerry state (Pennsylvania seems like what he's gunning for), he's going to have to win everything I've mentioned:
Ohio
Florida
Colorado
Virginia
Indiana
North Carolina
Missouri
and Nevada or 1 EV from Maine (without losing 1 EV from Nebraska)
That's a freaking tall order, considering Obama's campaign never left Colorado or Virginia after the primaries, and has been unopposed in Florida until recently.
Unless there's a huge shift in public opinion in the next 30 days, we're looking at the potential for an EV landslide.
Right now, the electoral math looks exceptionally good for Obama.
Right now, Obama has essentially locked down all of the Kerry states, plus Iowa, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. That leaves Obama at 264 electoral votes, just 6 shy of what he needs to win.
The remaining toss-up states are: Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana.
A victory by Obama in any of those states (except Nevada) will make Obama President, and he's got a slight lead in the Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada in the composites right now.
Winning Nevada technically leaves us with 269 vs 269, meaning the Democratic House picks the winner: Obama wins.
There's a bit of a conversation to go into about Maine and Nebraska: they split their electoral votes by district. The McCain campaign is making a play for 1 EV from Maine, while the Obama campaign is making a play for 1 EV from Nebraska. This will only really matter if the 269 tie comes up, though.
The bottom line is that McCain has a very hard hill to climb right now. Unless he can shake loose a Kerry state (Pennsylvania seems like what he's gunning for), he's going to have to win everything I've mentioned:
Ohio
Florida
Colorado
Virginia
Indiana
North Carolina
Missouri
and Nevada or 1 EV from Maine (without losing 1 EV from Nebraska)
That's a freaking tall order, considering Obama's campaign never left Colorado or Virginia after the primaries, and has been unopposed in Florida until recently.
Unless there's a huge shift in public opinion in the next 30 days, we're looking at the potential for an EV landslide.
<Dons tinfoil cap.>
In each the 2000 and 2004 elections, everything came down to just one Republican-run state -- and that was known going into the election night.
This time it'd require 7-8 simultaneous rigged state elections. Not impossible, but not likely, given that at least half of the swing states have Democratic governors...and we only need to win one.
I'm feeling good about Ohio on a gut-level, and on an analytical level I'm feeling good about Virginia and Colorado. Polling is also showing a major swing to Obama in Florida, but that's almost too good for me to believe is true.
With Florida, Obama could lose Pennsylvania, and every other swing state and 1 EV from Maine and still have a 269-269 tie (which he'd come out winning).
This is really dangerous for all these Obamafans to be counting their electoral votes. This is all based on polling data from a few hundred people and does not include any shifts or election rigging or what they will say happnened with the white-guilt polling syndrome problem.